IMF upbeat about global outlook
A celebration of four excellent years for the world economy and warnings that the good times could end in tears：that sums up the views of Raghuram Rajan, the International Monetary Fund's chief economist.
Speaking to the Financial Times in London ahead of the IMF and World Bank''s annual meeting in Singapore this weekend and writing in today's newspaper, Mr Rajan shows that the fund is happier about both the underpinnings of the world economy and its prospects.
A leak of the fund''s economic forecasts, published in the FT last week, showed it now expects global economic growth of 5.1 per cent in 2006, compared with its previous forecast of 4.8 per cent in April.
These figures and Mr Rajan's thoughts will be confirmed in the publication of the IMF's World Economic Outlook today. In 2007 the fund expects a slowing of advanced economies but with emerging countries powering ahead，the world is still set to grow by 4.9 per cent.
A new concern Mr Rajan expressed while talking to the FT Financial Times, was that the productivity gains that have underpinned the world economy might peter out as fresh policy reforms stall.
What I see now is the urgency for policy reform is rather muted he says.
Mr Rajan disagrees with the growing voices predicting a recession next year. The risks are two-sided he says. Inflation and a US slowdown are risks to the US. The million-dollar question is whether the slowdown is enough to quell the inflationary pressure or whether you need more rate rises.
But the elephant in the room as far Mr Rajan is concerned is still the yawning global trade imbalances that result in a huge US trade deficit and correspondingly large surpluses in China, oil exporters and Japan.
For the past 18 months, the fund has warned of a disorderly unwinding of these imbalances, involving a slump in the US dollar, much higher global interest rates and a global recession, risking chaos in financial markets and a resurgence of protectionism.
It has called on the US to reduce its budget deficit, Europe and Japan to speed domestic economic reforms, China to boost consumption and revalue the renminbi，and the rest of Asia to increase investment. and greater exchange rate flexibility in emerging Asia, a euphemism for Chinese revaluation of the renmimbi.
参考译文：
IMF看好全球经济前景
国际货币基金组织（IMF）首席经济学家拉古拉姆·拉詹（Raghuram Rajan）的观点可以概括为两个方面：一方面庆祝世界经济4年来的出色表现，另一方面警告大好时光可能会惨淡收场。
国际货币基金组织与世界银行（World Bank）的年会本周末将在新加坡召开。在此之前，拉詹先生在伦敦接受了《金融时报》采访并在本报今天的报纸上撰文。他的观点表明，国际货币基金组织对世界经济的基本状况及其前景比先前更为乐观。
国际货币基金组织透露了对经济所作的部分预测（《金融时报》上周发表了这些内容），它们显示，该组织预计2006年全球经济增长为5.1%，而相比之下，该组织于今年4月所作的上一次预测为4.8%.
国际货币基金组织的《世界经济展望》（World Economic Outlook）将于今天发表，届时有关上述数据和拉詹想法的真实性将得到证实。该基金组织预计，2007年，发达国家的经济增长将减速，但随着新兴国家的经济蓬勃发展，世界经济仍将增长4.9%.
拉詹先生在接受《金融时报》采访时表达了一种新的忧虑，即随着新的政策改革陷入停滞，一度支撑了世界经济的生产率增长可能会逐渐消失。
“我目前看到的情况，是政策改革的紧迫性还相当低”他表示。
一种日益高涨的预测是，全球经济明年将出现衰退。对此拉詹并不认同。“风险是双方面的”他表示。通胀和美国经济放缓是美国的风险。“关键问题是，经济放缓是否足以压制通胀压力，或是否需要进一步升息。”
但在拉詹看来，最主要的问题仍是不断扩大的全球贸易失衡。它导致美国背负巨额贸易逆差，而中国、石油出口国和日本则相应获得了大量盈余。
过去18个月中，国际货币资金组织曾警告说，无序解决这些失衡，会使美元大幅贬值、全球利率大幅上升和全球经济衰退，从而增加金融市场紊乱和保护主义再度抬头的风险。
该组织呼吁，美国应减少预算赤字，欧洲和日本应加快内部经济改革，中国要推动国内消费并允许人民币进一步升值，其余亚洲国家应加大投资力度，以及“亚洲新兴经济体增加汇率弹性”，即委婉地敦促中国让人民币进一步升值。
重点词汇：
monetary adj.货币的，金钱的
prospect n.景色，前景，前途，期望；vi.寻找，勘探
forecast n.先见，预见，预测，预报；vt.预想，预测，预报，预兆
confirmed adj.证实的，惯常的，慢性的
underpin v.加强……的基础，巩固，支撑
recession n.撤回，退回，退后，工商业之衰退，不景气
inflationary adj.通货膨胀的，通货膨胀倾向的
deficit n.赤字，不足额
correspondingly adv.相对地，比照地
consumption n.消费，消费量，肺病
revaluation n.再评价
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